Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing

The risk of surface water flooding (SWF) in England is already high and its frequency severity projected to increase the future. SWF generally occurs due intense, highly localised rainfall, which challenging forecast with sufficient accuracy take proactive action ahead flood events. Being able manage effectively lies improved rainfall products, better communication uncertainty building capacity local responders. This study utilises state-of-the-art high-resolution ensemble forecasts hydraulic modelling tools alongside a novel post-processing method develop trial new products within an incident workshop attended by producers regional users. Twenty-two 24 participants reported that information would be useful their organisation but more product development training interpretation required. Specific recommendations improve provision include increased support for government through single responsible SWF, making use existing static mapping real-time context employing process user-based consultation, as outlined this study, guide future processes.